Timeline: this was written after game 1 of each series (and game 2 of TOR-FLA)
After a bit of a slow start to round 1, we are now off and running in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs thanks to some phenomenal game 7 comebacks. And with some big steps happening here at LB-Hockey as well, it felt natural to bring the progress of both together for an article previewing this huge second round.
Recently, we’ve unveiled our new team-based dashboards with both the Team Blueprints and Matchup Engine joining the LB-Hockey arsenal. The glossaries for each are available at their underlined link, but this piece will showcase the latter of the two which juxtaposes offence vs defence in various areas of the game. Using that, we’ll highlight the inflexion points and dive into how they could make or break the series in either team’s favour.
Atlantic Skirmish
For those less familiar with the Matchup Engine dashboard, this series makes for an easy example due to the colour contrast of the two teams. The left side team, Toronto here, has their metrics in teal while the right, Florida, is in pink. This tool’s main attraction is the bar chart columns, with the one on the left showing when TOR has the puck and FLA is against it. So every light-teal-&-dark-pink pair shows the Leafs’ offence against the Panthers’ defence in a specific area. The right side simply flips this, as the top light-pink bar represents Florida’s offence and the bottom dark-teal one is Toronto’s defence.
FLA’s Key Area: Forecheck, Forecheck, Forecheck
It’s what propelled them to two straight Cup finals appearances and branded them as one of, if not the toughest, team in hockey. Florida’s forecheck is tops in the league, largely thanks to years devoted under this heavy system and acquisitions that perfectly fit this style of play.
The Panthers’ team forecheck ranks first in our data, while also being able to create off those recoveries at one of the best rates league-wide. When clashing against a Leafs D-corps who, although might be at its best defensively-speaking in a long time, has done so by trading off puck-moving ability, Florida is prompted with a big opportunity here. The potential is there to overwhelm a suboptimal Leafs breakout by heavily pressuring the D into turnovers, acquire possession, and feast on the ensuing plays. Sure, Toronto’s back-end has been more mobile this post-season, but it truly cannot be overstated how deadly Florida tends to be in these situations. Their pressure is suffocating for even the best to withstand.
TOR’s Key Area: Smart Passive Cycle Defence
At the time of writing, Toronto is holding a 2-0 series lead for the second round in a row, marking the first occurrence of this phenomenon since 1963. And that is without their excellent 5-forward power-play set-up rolling at full force, but that might not last much longer. Yes, the Panthers’ strong group of penalty killers is exemplary and can slow down Toronto’s attack, but their bigger issue is discipline. No team took more minor penalties than Florida this year, and it has already handed the Leafs eight power-play opportunities through two games. At this pace, TOR is bound to take advantage over a large growing sample.
But what’s driven Toronto’s success thus far is their defensive cycle structure. We mentioned Florida’s forecheck as a huge driver to their success, but the counter here is that TOR’s defence outmatches FLA’s offence in other situations (notably off the rush, but especially against the cycle). The Leafs’ defensive structure has shown to be an outstanding cycle dead zone, with their opposition struggling to get many chances despite sustained time within the blue line. Amplify this by an almost perfectly mirrored Florida offence: elite at getting set-up and keeping the puck, but chances are harder to come by after the initial push. So if the Leafs can manage to survive forecheck onslaught, they can find themselves in a solid situation when defending a lead by not overwhelming FLA, but slowly bleeding out the clock, which eked out wins for them in games 1 and 2.
Metro Melee
WSH’s Key Area: Transition Counter-Attack
No matter what happens from here on out with Washington, it’s been an incredibly successful season. Even putting the Ovechkin race aside, no one predicted that they would be here in the second round with a solid chance at the Cup in October, let alone winning the Eastern Conference regular season title. They accomplished this on the back of great performances throughout the lineup, finishing ability, and goaltending prowess yes, but their offence deserves more credit than I’ve seen them receive. The overall ability to create chances in all areas has been a standout for WSH, and that’s been driven through almost league-best offence off the forecheck and tremendous rush plays.
It’s hard to find weaknesses in Carolina’s play without the puck, but the Caps’ style may be perfectly tailored to attack their only notable weakness(es). With such heavy o-zone forecheck commitment, CAR’s framework can be prone to counterattacks, putting their transition defence often at a man disadvantage with forwards deep in the opposing zone. That’s why the Canes’ defence is built for this: putting emphasis on developing 1-v-1 shutdown proficiency, which explains their phenomenal zone denial efficiency score.
Nonetheless, Carolina’s rush and forecheck defences grade as their only below-league-average against-puck metrics. Counter that with the Capitals’ success in that same area with the puck, and there’s an open path through Carolina’s otherwise highly lauded defence.
CAR’s Key Area: The Law of Averages
One of the first checks I made from the new team-centric data we published was Carolina’s play-driving numbers. And sure enough, they’ve ranked first when it comes to both generating and suppressing offensive pressure across the league in every season dating back to the start of our sample in 2021-22. Their reputation precedes them as the Hurricanes continue to be a voluminous yet stifling team year after year.
The Caps however, do not profile nearly the same, placing below average (and often a fair bit lower) in all of our tracked 5v5 defensive metrics. This discrepancy materialized right away in game 1, with Carolina outshooting Washington by more than double (and shot attempts by nearly triple!). But that didn’t stop this match from being close. WSH has been able to counter its subpar defensive metrics through stingy penalty killing and strong goaltending.
Nonetheless, Carolina still outperforms them in these categories, as can be seen in the Matchup Engine. Over a large enough sample, these edges should stack and overcome the poor CAR finishing to tilt the series in their favour. A huge win on the road to start off the series allows this set to grow, and goals from historically subpar finishers (but phenomenal players) in Stankoven & Slavin could finally be signs of a different outcome on the horizon for the franchise.
Central Showdown
We just had arguably the best weekend of playoff hockey in recent memory, and all it took was two games. What Winnipeg and Dallas accomplished in their game 7 performances on home ice was absolutely electric, and either would stand out as THE moment in almost any season’s playoffs. So it’s only fitting to have these two teams face off directly after.
WPG’s Key Area: Creation Off Recoveries
Winnipeg’s season was on the line, down one, with 25 seconds to go in game 7. A Nikolaj Ehlers rim dump from the neutral zone starts a sequence that would become notorious with the latest game 7 game-tying goal of all-time by Cole Perfetti to cap it off. None of this would be possible without the Jets’ ability to hound and retrieve what looked like a sure clear multiple times for St. Louis, and instead evolved into an unbelievable passing play. This is exactly where Winnipeg’s win condition lies for their next series against Dallas.
Thanks to their forward depth, and specific type of depth with guys like Lowry, Niederreiter, Tanev, and Appleton, Winnipeg is quite adept at laying on the gas deep in enemy territory to recover pucks. But what is especially strong is their ability to turn those retrievals into scoring chances. We saw this all throughout the third period of game 1, where they quickly established pressure along Dallas’s low boards, either beat their opponents to loose pucks or won battles, to then generate shots thanks to their team’s positioning during and directly after the initial forecheck.
When you couple that with Winnipeg’s breakout ability, especially once Morrissey returns, against the Stars’ not-as-forecheck-inclined approach, and WPG was in DAL’s zone for almost the entirety of the third. They simply regaled off Dallas’s right-side defensive corps lacking puck-moving ability. Now how does the inevitable Heiskanen return and depth shifting back into place change that? We’ll just have to wait and see.
DAL’s Key Area: Dangerous Entries
We just mentioned Dallas’s lower forecheck numbers, but that’s not due to a lack of individual ability in that area. Oskar Bäck has been one of the best puck hunters in the league this season, Sam Steel’s a great recovery option, Wyatt Johnston is just an absolute hound, and the large majority of their deep forward group has posted near-average or better numbers in terms of dump recovery rate. So what drives the lower team-level rank?
Simply put, they don’t need to rely on higher-risk uncontrolled dumps when they’ve proved to be so much better at a more dangerous alternative. The Stars hold the best zone entry efficiency score in our model this season: they are just so skilled at turning neutral zone plays, whether that’s passes or carries, into offensive-zone possessions. And even more alarming for their opposition, has been their ability to constantly create off those rush attempts. Once again, a Heiskanen return injects even more of that into the lineup.
Should the team continue this season’s success offensively in transition, while Mikko continues to give them the cycle offence boost it desperately needed (as he did for all three goals in game 1), then the attacking side of the puck should be taken care of at 5v5. This could very well be sufficient to book their ticket to the next round, with DAL’s top 3 penalty kill being able to limit the league’s deadliest power-play in WPG just enough. Either way, this should be a special teams battle of the titans when their constellation goes down a Star.
Pacific Face-Off
VGK’s Key Area: Special Teams Imbalance
No team saw fewer power plays (with or against them) in their games than the Golden Knights this season. And despite that, they may need to rely on getting those calls to come out ahead in round 2. Vegas’s power-play has been unreal this season, and although much of that success can be attributed to their glut of pp options spread throughout both units, it’s the big names that have been especially potent during this run.
Their top-of-the-zone threats have been carving up the opposition, with Edmonton’s penalty kill being the latest victim in game 1. Shea Theodore and Jack Eichel are playing with tons of conviction and taking advantage of the high circles in the middle and left lanes, while getting support from their other three teammates to give them space to do so.
Proofreading note: sure enough, the pp1 unit accounts for 3 of their 5 total goals so far this series
On the other side, the Oilers’ penalty kill is a product of Edmonton’s lack of depth (and goaltending). Sure, there are role players here and there filling in, but the results on the PK have been fine at best. The bigger problem lies in Mattias Ekholm’s absence aggravating the issue and really thinning out the bottom of EDM’s lineup here.
Again, it may end up being difficult to draw the penalties necessary to fully enact this plan, but the saving grace is that their discipline has been even better, hopefully saving them from Edmonton’s weapon-laden PP unit.
EDM’s Key Area: Breakout-to-Cycle Potential
Conversely, Edmonton has an even clearer mismatch that they could take advantage of in this round, and it starts with their breakout against Vegas’s forecheck. The Oilers rank first league-wide within our dataset when it comes to breaking the puck out of their zone efficiently and while retaining possession. The Knights on the other hand, have not seen nearly the same level of success in terms of preventing their opposition from doing so through disruption attempts and forecheck pressures. Instead, they’ve been opting for a more conservative neutral zone approach to mitigate more dangerous chances coming back the other way.
This has helped EDM get out of the zone quickly and cleanly, with all four of their goals in game 1 occurring only a handful of seconds after being in their own zone. Having it work to this extent is pretty incredible, and there likely is a hertl hurdle that they will have to bypass should Vegas return to regular season form. The Knights placed in the top 5 this season both in zone denial efficiency and rush chance prevention. A lot of this success can be attributed to neutral zone support from their defensively proficient forwards: Eichel, Stone, Karlsson, Hertl, Roy, Dorofeyev, Smith, the list goes on.
So should Edmonton’s ability to capitalize on those transition attempts as they progress deeper towards VGK’s side of the ice dwindle, there is another inflexion point in play. Emphasis could be placed on establishing possession within the zone, in exchange for fewer potential rush chances. These lower-danger controlled entries would be in hopes of taking advantage of the sizeable difference between the Oilers’ cycle offence proficiency and Vegas’s cycle defence struggles. From there, it shouldn’t take long for McDavid and Draisaitl to feast off the cycle.
Once again for all those interested, you can find a deeper explanation of the Matchup Engine here, a glossary of the accompanying Team Blueprints here, and gain access to both and plenty more here. Happy Playoffs!