The 2025-26 season is upon us. And similarly to last October, we will be starting off the hockey season with an Ottawa Senators season preview article. But since last year’s edition was fairly expansive, and there can only be so much development within the players, the focus will shift to Ottawa’s 2025 additions. We will analyze each of the new Senators’ fit into the team’s puzzle, and how their playing styles will contribute towards a return to the playoffs.
Dylan Cozens
I’ve talked ad nauseam about Dylan Cozens since his trade. So I will mostly limit this section to his time in Ottawa. However, if you’re interested in more, I wrote a full article on his game and the swap with Josh Norris earlier this spring.
Currently, the Workhorse from Whitehorse is pencilled in as 2C for the opening night roster. During the stretch with Ottawa last year, he proved to be worthy of top 6 minutes, producing at a 20-goal 43-assist pace. I do wonder though if, given his defensive profile and makeup of the forward group, the team might be better off with him playing the wing on line 2.
Cozens’s involvement off the puck has never been an issue; his voluminous defensive zone retrieval rate and nine hits in his Senators debut made that evident. He’s just generally a high-activity player, and while this has garnered him some two-way reputation, it has yet to materialize in strong efficiency and defensive results. Luckily for the Sens, this gives them an opportunity to complement Dylan’s skillset with someone who fills that gap, and has also shown he deserves a shot in the top 6.
Shane Pinto has been used as an all-situations 3C who can move up in lieu of injuries, but he’s got enough production potential to slide up if he plays alongside dynamic wingers. And that’s where the fit with Cozens begins to shine, as the Yukon native’s feet, handling in speed, and potent wrist shot take care of that. The match makes even more sense when looking at the defensive portion of their radars. We can see above that all of Pinto’s shutdown attributes are above average, which would help Cozens tremendously. While the latter would take care of the former’s only big weakness in the d-zone: the breakout.
Slotting Batherson on the other wing would provide some extra shooting and passing ability to that trio, bringing it in line with a level of offence we would expect from a secondary forward unit.
Optimizing the former Sabre’s chemistry with his linemates could be the key to setting his end to last season as the new norm. In 800 5v5 minutes with Buffalo last year, Dylan Cozens contributed at a pace of 0.5 SPAR over 82 games (SPAR = Standings Points Above Replacement, an estimation of a player’s overall contributions to their team). That’s more in line with average bottom 6 forwards and is quite the regression from his previous years. But after his time as a Senator, that final SPAR came up to a more respectable 1.3. By isolating those 261 5v5 minutes in Ottawa, we can calculate that he performed at a 3.75 SPAR pace over a full season.
This performance would have ranked him in the top 5 for centremen 23 and under last season. And when expanding to forwards, it places him in the range of breakout stars like Dylan Guenther, Cole Caufield, & Lucas Raymond.
When it comes to applying all of this in crucial big-game moments, Cozens has come up clutch plenty of times, especially for a guy who only just this spring finally got the opportunity to skate in an NHL playoff game. His first goal as a Senator was the eventual game-winner with 5 minutes left in a crucial battle towards playoff qualification. His first career postseason goal was a shorthanded insurance marker in the 3rd period. And he’s got a long international resumé there too, from a last-second goal at the Hlinka semis, to an overtime winner at the World Championships, and a game-tying goal in the gold-medal game at the World Juniors.
No matter the deployment, Cozens will hope to bring that poise and inject an X-Factor into Ottawa’s lineup when they need it most throughout 2025-26.
Jordan Spence
At the 2025 NHL Draft, Steve Staios didn’t need to be flashy. He remained effective however, as he traded down to grab the arguable BPA in Logan Hensler with their first round selection, then turned around and used those picks to acquire Jordan Spence.
I’ve been a big fan of Spence’s play at the NHL level in his first couple of seasons. Yes, his minutes have been fairly sheltered, even going so far as ranking in the top 15 easiest deployments among defencemen within our data. But he has taken this opportunity and rolled with it. Looking at both 5-on-5 and all strengths play, Jordan Spence has produced at a top-pair worthy rate. His PTS/60 at 5v5 was even in the top 30 last season amongst regulars (dmen with 1000+ minutes), placing him in a range with guys like Vince Dunn, Luke Hughes, and Josh Morrissey.
Personally, this inclines me to try him with whoever doesn’t get slotted next to Zub between Sanderson and Chabot. Just think about both of their right-side partners throughout their careers so far; neither has had supplementary puck-moving ability to play with. Chabot is the likelier of the two to play extended minutes with Spence, so let’s move forward looking at their possible partnership.
Not only would the total passing skill improve with both on the ice, but their tendencies complement each other very well in that area. Chabot is a workhorse who constantly uses his feet, vision, and endurance to assert himself on puck possessions. He has a lot of command over Ottawa’s plays by quarterbacking from the blue line, which has resulted in a puck-movement Influence score only surpassed by Cale Makar last season. The “Flow” and “Volume” ranks are also very high, as can be seen above. It’s only the “Efficiency” that isn’t at an elite level.
Spence, meanwhile, shines in that area. The newest Senator is great when it comes to being the main chance set-up guy (87th percentile Playmaking score in our data), but he’s especially strong when it comes to maximizing the flexibility of puck possession states. Through constant scanning and consistent passing execution, Jordan ensures offensive plays can proceed if opponents block off potential future pathways, resulting in the highest puck-movement Efficiency score in our dataset last season. This is an area that Devon Toews has perfected with his role in Colorado, uplifting his dynamic star teammates in Makar & MacKinnon by continuously progressing plays towards getting them the puck without turning it over.
Moving forward with this philosophy in mind could do wonders for expanding Ottawa’s offensive strategy by giving them far more passing routes with a diversity of options, strengthening plays up high in the o-zone and in transition.
This pairing could be an improvement on the defensive side as well. One of my biggest takeaways from the series against Toronto was that Chabot-Jensen was bleeding transition chances. The Leafs took advantage of that pairing’s middling rush defence ability to generate loads of entries with possession and medium-to-high danger scoring attempts. Jensen was indeed playing through an injury, but his transition shutdown metrics had already declined a fair bit prior to that, down from being one of the best in that area a couple of years ago.
Now I know Jordan Spence doesn’t seem like he would be much of an upgrade with his smaller frame and sheltered usage, but his metrics have been solid. He’s no powerhouse, but his ability to disrupt entries at the blue line ranks higher than both Chabot and Jensen, while his prevention of chances off rush plays is at the 80th percentile for dmen. So in isolation, he has shown to be fairly capable in shutting down the exact kind of plays the Senators’ 2nd pair was weak against. In fact, the team as a whole took a step back rush-defence-wise last season, down to their lowest point since the 2021 Covid-shortened season.
Ottawa’s overall defensive results did see a significant step up however, and Spence excels there too. Even after accounting for the fairly easy quality of competition, he drove fantastic suppression numbers both in terms of chance quality and sustained zone pressure.
In a nutshell, Jordan Spence should be a great value addition that brings skills to both cover weaknesses of potential partners in Ottawa’s lineup and supplement their strengths. He should especially improve the team’s net neutral zone output and could, if they choose to roll with him next to Chabot in the top 4, help ease Jensen back in after that lengthy injury recovery this summer.
Fabian Zetterlund
There may be no player on whom my opinion and metrics diverge more than Fabian Zetterlund. Although that might not be the case anymore, as players of his ilk were part of the motivation behind our big SPAR model overhaul this summer. Implementing this new approach with more empirically founded weights for all the measured skills in our data resulted in him shooting up the ranks. With this, Zetterlund saw his total SPAR estimation almost triple, the 2nd biggest jump amongst all players in the league. That more closely reflects what I’ve seen from him in a Senators uniform.
The former Shark’s game is centred on two ideas: disciplined pressure and high-danger scoring. Fabian’s motor always runs high, and that allows him to be very active against the puck. On the forecheck, he constantly involves himself by attacking opponents as they try to break it out, often making them double back, forcing poor passes/clears, or stripping the puck outright. Even better: he does all of this while keeping a remarkably strong penalty differential.
Despite not being able to showcase his offensive skills as much during his time with Ottawa last year, this application of pressure was put on display plenty of times. It was a big reason as to why I’d love to see Tkachuk-Stützle-Zetterlund as the first line to start the season.
Zetterlund added an extra layer of smart checking that helped them prolong offensive possessions together and really overload their opponents low in the zone. By combining that with Brady’s physical dominance around the crease & boards, and Timmy’s dynamic advantage creation, you get a powerful offensive first line that reflects the current era’s emphasis on blending skill, speed, and physicality.
As for his production, the slow start makes some sense and likely shouldn’t be something to be concerned about; it descends from his style of play. The big draw with Zetterlund’s offence is his ability to enable high-danger chances. He’s got a great feel for open pockets of space and he knows how to hunt for those gaps in coverage. When his teammates have possession in the zone, he places himself in prime spots for one-timers off high-danger passes, quietly slides into openings throughout the slot, and wins positioning battles at the net-front for tap-ins or rebounds.
This makes him have a lot of sway over the evolution of his team’s passing sequences, as he frequently shapes how they will culminate into a scoring chance. That is reflected in his Offensive Puck-Movement Profile below, as the “Influence” score consistently ranks first of the four metrics year-in and year-out.
The one issue with primarily driving value through this style of play is that it entails a heavy dependency on the connection between you and your teammates. You rely on understanding their rotations during cycles, remembering their tendencies with the puck, and anticipating the timing and types of passes they like to dish. Downloading that behavioural profile becomes a necessity towards success, and as such, when you’re thrust into a totally new environment, that bridge of chemistry needs to be rebuilt.
We saw this last time Zetterlund got traded. After getting off to a strong start in his rookie season, he was shipped off to San Jose where he only accumulated 3 points in the last 22 games of the season. Fabian then bounced right back the following season, potting 24 goals and 44 points, all while playing into some pretty unfavourable deployment.
Despite fighting through a constantly shifting spot in the lineup, a variety of new linemates, and some truly heinous puck luck at times, Zetterlund showed promising signs of improvement. That was especially evident in the final game of the season against Carolina, as he buzzed all over the ice and started to really gel with Cozens and Batherson, snagging a primary assist and four shots in the process.
So it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Zetterdawg get back to his productive ways once the season gets underway. To maximize those odds, Ottawa’s coaching staff should try to get Fabian some lineup stability with teammates who can leverage his net-crashing ways and find him when he sneaks into the mid-slot for a dangerous one-timer.
Lars Eller
When Ottawa signed Eller on July 1st, most of the fanbase shared one thought: “That’s the perfect 4C”. And to be honest, I don’t really have much else to add. Eller is an established bottom-6 defensive centre whose game has remained fairly steady even at the twilight of his career.
Looking at his work against the puck, the Danish forward continues to rank above league average. The opposition has a tough time generating chances or sustained pressure when he’s on the ice. This is thanks to defensive smarts and heavy involvement in his own zone, as he retrieves pucks often and rarely turns them over on their way out of the blue line. The most physical aspect in his shutdown game, checking ability, has seen some variation over the last few years (as we would expect at 36), but even that saw a favourable jump up last season.
His 20 to 30 point pace and play-driving experience also give him enough overall skill to fill in on the third line if necessary. We haven’t been able to see all of that in action much unfortunately, as Eller has been in the final stages of recovery from a medical procedure to fix an abdominal and sports hernia issue. This had supposedly been nagging him since last November, but he’s pain-free now and on track to be ready for opening night.
Arthur Kaliyev
While there’s a chance this next guy doesn’t crack the opening lineup (that may even be confirmed by the time this article goes out), he’s easily the highest-profile of the non-locks for the roster. Kaliyev was part of the first draft cohort I started scouting back in 2019, and I saw him fairly extensively as he played for the Hamilton Bulldogs, a divisional opponent and first-round matchup of the powerhouse 2018-19 Ottawa 67s.
My notes on him come draft time were in line with the general consensus: a scoring threat who leverages his heavy shot by understanding off-puck routes in the o-zone to get open for one-timers often. Sure there wasn’t much else to his game, as his stride was very inefficient and hindered most other areas. But if you’re going to be a one-trick pony, goal-scoring is the best trick to pick.
Six years later, Kaliyev’s development path is nearing its end, and there’s still a lot to fix. Shot selection should be the #1 target, especially with the goal-scoring being his biggest draw. Yes his shot rate and finishing on both close- & long-range attempts are fairly high, but the situational use needs help. Currently, he’s taking low-danger shots that could’ve been advanced to increase possession value instead of resulting in turnovers far too frequently. That likely stems from a lack of extra areas in his game to rely on, forcing his hand in taking shots he shouldn’t.
As a result, expanding his toolkit could go a long way in addressing this. The most direct approach would be to continue shaping him towards a bottom-6 scoring role, which would entail adding a more successful passing dimension. He wouldn’t need to be a true dual-threat, but giving him options to continue plays when the shot isn’t a good idea would help a lot, while also opening up more opportunities for his shooting game. I do remember being impressed by some underrated passing moments during his draft year, so there may be something to unearth.
Improving his forecheck game to go down the power forward route is an alternative, and would mark him as an option for teams looking to add a scoring element to their checking line. But realistically, players are who they are at his age. Luckily for him, the finishing ability remains good, while the shot creation both on- & off-puck was some of the best available on the market when Ottawa made the signing. His defensive impact also hasn’t been bad, but sustainability is certainly a question mark.
Overall, this is a cheap potentially-rewarding bet that could fix some of Ottawa’s scoring woes, as long as he gets neutral-zone-adept linemates who can cover up his skating by carrying the load in transition.
Goals
The reality is, Ottawa needs goals. And if there’s one thing all of these new guys have in common, it’s that they can SHOOT. They have each scored thanks to absolute laser beams a number of times since last summer.
The Sens were 31st of 32 last season in 5v5 goals. Only Nashville scored less, and New Jersey was the only other Eastern Conference playoff team in the bottom 10. So hopefully for Ottawa this injection of various skills, especially shooting prowess, will vault their team-wide goalscoring in 2025-26.
Bonus: Zub’s Development
As a final section here, I recently gauged public opinion on Artem Zub because, from talking to fans over the last few months, I felt as if my thoughts on him might diverge from the consensus. Some thought he had regressed a little, others a tiny bit better, but the majority agreed that he had been roughly the same in the last couple years. One reply summed up the fanbase’s collective response very well:
“Zub is the constant. If he appears better or worse, it is merely a reflection of the world moving around him.”
– User @jbaines37.bsky.social
In my mind, Zub has turned into one of the most underrated shutdown partners out there. That may seem rash but he’s got a fair bit of data backing him up. First, while he has always been a solid defender, his defensive metrics all over the ice have improved to near top-of-the-league recently. Zub ranks #1 in net-front defending amongst all NHL regulars over the last 3 years. His ability to snuff entry plays has taken a significant jump. The play-driving stats are also stellar, as only Chris Tanev has better chance suppression numbers, and Adam Fox is the lone defender with a more positive impact on his teammates’ possession underlyings.
This all sounds like he should be recognized as one of the top ideal defensive supporters, let alone having his team’s fanbase be enthusiastic about his development. But why isn’t that the general feeling?
The problem with his optics from a fan perspective, is that there is nothing flashy in his toolkit, not even his defence! Jaccob Slavin and Gustav Forsling have established themselves as prime disruptors who use their sticks as perfectly-tuned defensive instruments to impede opposition progress on entry attempts. And while Zub is a top-notch rush defender, he isn’t an aggressive blueline sentinel who constantly strips pucks.
We’ve already established how excellent his net-front defending is, but he isn’t a hulking guardian of the crease like a Jamie Oleksiak type. Rather, Zub accomplishes this through smart reads, understanding cycle rotations, and strong positioning down low.
Even outside of his toolkit, the environment has lowered his threat level. Vladislav Gavrikov has been identified by our model as one of his closest comparables, and has followed a parallel reputation trajectory that Zub could in the next couple of years. Gavrikov’s playing style is very similar, and wasn’t the most popular across the league. Until a trade to a bigger city and potential to hit the free agent market skyrocketed his notoriety, landing him in New York with a 7×7 contract this July 1st.
I’m not saying Zub’s reputation will explode to that level, but there are plenty of factors veiling his success from the public eye. It’s hard to do so without flash, but he’s efficient and has grown increasingly consistent on a game-to-game basis. His metrics against the puck are high-end, in times where shutdown ability is becoming more and more prioritized once again. Moreover, that’s all while holding one of the highest defensive zone shift start rates, and some of the toughest quality of competition out there.
Should the Senators continue to struggle finding the back of the net at 5-on-5, look to Zub as a key piece in ensuring Ottawa still has a chance in low-scoring games.
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