The hockey world had to pick their collective jaws off the floor on Friday following the announcement of potentially the biggest mid-season trade in almost 20 years. So, using the LB-Hockey tools at our disposal, let’s go over the pieces involved and see how it sets up Colorado and Carolina heading into the deadline.
Mikko Rantanen
Despite being a pending UFA, I really did not think we’d see Rantanen move, especially this quickly. Nathan MacKinnon himself said he “never thought in a million years would [Mikko] leave”.
With this trade, the Hurricanes are getting an unbelievably talented forward. Rantanen is a true superstar who plays the perfect style of game to complement the prototypical dynamic playmaking 1C. Over the last five years, he ranks 4th in total points and is a great checker who can retrieve pucks on the forecheck and pressure his opposition into turnovers in the neutral zone.
His only below-average skill is suppression in his own zone, which is where Carolina excels as a team. In his likely pairing with fellow Finnish superstar Sebastian Aho, that will be easily covered on top of giving him high-end offense to play with, as he had with the Avs (but not quite to the same drastic level obviously).
Martin Necas
Necas is the main return going to the Avs here and would be THE big piece in almost any other trade. He is an incredibly dynamic player who is a true triple-threat with his passing, shooting, and handling ability, which he has been able to channel into a huge breakout season.
The Czech forward’s toolkit is pretty well optimized, but I’m curious to see how he leverages certain skills in his new environment. He has historically been a great forechecker with the capacity to challenge players 1v1 off-puck, but has rarely been the main option to do so given how strong the Hurricanes are in that aspect. Having an all-world playmaker like MacKinnon in the middle will also give him the opportunity to use his nice in-tight finishing ability more often to reflect his strength in that area.
Necas has a knack for coming up clutch when most needed, resulting in plenty of overtime winners in his short career. It’s only a matter of time before that’s made evident in Colorado.
Taylor Hall
At first, all we knew from what would become this trade was Taylor Hall making his way to Carolina. And then chaos ensued.
Despite having regressed a little in recent years, he remains an excellent puck-mover thanks to his speedy neutral zone action and passing ability. Stylistically, this fits into a similar mould of recently-acquired players over the past few years like Kuznetsov & Roslovic. By adding further speed to Carolina’s high-pace play, Hall should mesh well with those smart play-driving checkers on the Canes who will cover his shutdown woes as he injects more dynamic aspects into the lineup.
I’m especially curious to see if Brind’amour deploys him next to Martinook who perfectly fits that description as an ideal winger pair.
Jack Drury
After some speculation on Friday that Jesperi Kotkaniemi may be the secondary piece going to Colorado in this trade, Jack Drury ended up being the final domino to fall.
Drury has quietly been one of the league’s best suppressors over the last couple of years. Yes, his deployment has been one of the most favourable league-wide, but even accounting for this he’s driving supreme defensive results both in terms of chances and zone pressure against. This is possible thanks to his mix of smart positioning against the puck, high involvement in the defensive zone, and great 1v1 tracking when directly shadowing the opposition.
In a bigger role with the Avalanche, it would be no surprise to see him get a chance to showcase his underrated offensive abilities into more than just “4th-line level scoring”. Sure enough, he would be the first player from this prolific crop to score on their new teams.
Chicago Blackhawks
This feels incredibly underwhelming for Chicago. While reports were that the team was hoping to receive a 3rd in a Taylor Hall offer, that alone feels light. Now using up a retained salary spot to help the Canes get out from half of Rantanen’s deal (4.625M) this year in addition to that is really puzzling. It’s not the end of the world but even NHL staff were left feeling confused at what Chicago did here, with the sense that Hall could’ve garnered more than just a 3rd, and the retention a similar (if not slightly smaller) return value.
Colorado Avalanche
Based on reports surfacing after the trade, it seemed like there wasn’t much friction stemming from extension negotiations between Rantanen and Avs management. However, Colorado prioritized risk management and cap flexibility moving forward.
It’s hard to recoup equivalent value when trading away a star player, let alone one of Rantanen’s calibre & experience. With keeping that in mind, Colorado addressed multiple needs rather well here. The hole left by Mikko is immediately filled with a younger cheaper option who is arguably having a better season, and seems to be back on track after a drought that followed his league-leading productive start to the season. They also shore up their long-needed centre depth with Drury who has been deserving of a top 9 look but was somewhat blocked by Carolina’s organizational strength there. And finally, they add some picks that could be used towards more acquisitions soon, with Landeskog also aiming to bolster the lineup with his return before the end of the regular season.
Over the last few years, these big “near trade deadline” trades have been occurring further and further away from the actual deadline date. I wonder how much of this pushed MacFarland to get this done at the start of trade season, and maybe take a small cut on return value now, to have all of his options open for both this specific swap and potential moves in the coming month.
Carolina Hurricanes
It’s difficult not to love this trade from Carolina’s perspective. The Hurricanes have been on the precipice of a deep run for a while now, just falling short in the cup finals numerous times during their years of regular-season dominance. They indicated their willingness to push more of their chips to the centre last year with the Guentzel acquisition, and further upped the ante with this one.
It’s truly remarkable to see them pull off both of these deals without having to give up a single first-round pick or any of their top prospects (Nikishin, Unger Sörum, Nadeau, Morrow, Artamonov, Badinka, Poirier have all remained). Eric Tulsky has done a masterful job at giving his team the best chance to win while not sacrificing much at all for the future, which is pretty crucial given how long this team might be able to extend its window.
There is always the possibility that Rantanen does not re-sign in Carolina, but that would be the case for any team acquiring him. However, out of all true cup contenders, the Hurricanes are potentially the best suited to do so. They have over 30M in projected cap space this off-season, with Burns & Orlov as the biggest pieces to replace who will likely return at a lower cost or be replaced for cheaper, like Nikishin coming over at long last. This only leaves a couple depth forward spots and a backup goalie to be filled with the remainder of the available cap (which should rise as well). Having Aho around to help loop in Rantanen long-term also helps Carolina tremendously.
But if they can retain Rantanen, I find myself hard-pressed to think of an organization in better shape moving forward. Being able to turn a scorching start from a player who seemed on the outs earlier in the summer before being bridged to (seemingly) slightly delay the inevitable, into a superstar the calibre of which is seldom available on the market, is simply incredible. I wonder what else they do before the deadline because there aren’t many holes remaining on this roster, but as Tulsky said following the trade: “until we have the best 20 players all on our team, we’ll always be looking to get better”.
